Malmo FF 5-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 11 as Malmo FF welcome Kalmar FF to Eleda Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Malmo FF — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Malmo FF have posted 7W 2D 1L at Eleda Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Malmo FF) versus 1.80 (Kalmar FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Malmo FF have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Kalmar FF have managed just 2 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
The historical record gives Malmo FF a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 48% versus Kalmar FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 62% | Kalmar FF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.95 xG and Kalmar FF 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.186 / defence 0.608 | Kalmar FF attack 1.084 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.352. Malmo FF's defence rating of 0.608 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Malmo FF games / 40 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 62% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 17%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Kalmar FF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 40% | Kalmar FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 62% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Malmo FF 1.95 / Kalmar FF 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.186 / def 0.608 | Kalmar FF attack 1.084 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Kalmar FF xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF?
Malmo FF 5 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 62% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Malmo FF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Kalmar FF?
Record (7 meetings): Malmo FF 5W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 2W.
What form are Malmo FF and Kalmar FF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Malmo FF's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.69
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.84
0.89
Kalmar FF xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
42.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.89 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Malmo FF have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 33W 11D 16L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Kalmar FF's form line: 28W 12D 20L from 60 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Malmo FF on 1.83 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Malmo FF have posted 2.13 PPG from 30 outings (19W 7D 4L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Malmo FF are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Kalmar FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 games (1.83 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 28W 12D 20L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.13 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2024, when Malmo FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Malmo FF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-2 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Kalmar FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 50%, Kalmar FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Malmo FF and 53% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 53% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Malmo FF's matches and 53% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Malmo FF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Kalmar FF 5-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.95 xG and Kalmar FF 0.89 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Malmo FF beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kalmar FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.19 / defence 0.61 against Kalmar FF attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 62% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 17%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 62%, Kalmar FF 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.83 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.