Djurgardens IF 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Djurgardens IF at 1.60 PPG versus Hammarby FF's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Djurgardens IF, 1 for Hammarby FF and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 42% versus Hammarby FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | Hammarby FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.64 xG and Hammarby FF 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.949 / defence 0.747 | Hammarby FF attack 0.799 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.304. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Djurgardens IF games / 41 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 18%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Hammarby FF 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 40% | Hammarby FF 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.64 / Hammarby FF 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.949 / def 0.747 | Hammarby FF attack 0.799 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Hammarby FF xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 58% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Record (5 meetings): Djurgardens IF 2W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (0.95) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.09
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.42
0.78
Hammarby FF xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
3%
29.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.78 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 32W 11D 17L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 27W 19D 14L from 60 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.78 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (21W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 10W 9D 11L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.68 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.20 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
4
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 40%, Hammarby FF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Djurgardens IF) and 40% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 43%; Hammarby FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 33% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 40% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Djurgardens IF 0-3 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.64 xG and Hammarby FF 0.78 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.95 / defence 0.75 against Hammarby FF attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 18%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Hammarby FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, Hammarby FF 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.78 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.