Orebro SK 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Sirius travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orebro SK 0.80 PPG, Sirius 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Orebro SK, 1 for Sirius and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Orebro SK trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sirius trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 49% versus Sirius 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 58% | Sirius 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.56 xG and Sirius 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.836 / defence 1.135 | Sirius attack 0.835 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.110. Sirius bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Orebro SK games / 45 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 47% | Draw 29% | Sirius 24%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Sirius 4.17. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 50% | Sirius 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 47% | Draw 29% | Sirius 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Orebro SK 1.56 / Sirius 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.836 / def 1.135 | Sirius attack 0.835 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sirius xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Sirius kick off?
Orebro SK vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Sirius?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Orebro SK vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Sirius part of?
Orebro SK vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 47% chance of winning, Sirius a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Orebro SK and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Sirius?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 2W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Sirius in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Sirius (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.84) and Sirius's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.44
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.61
1.05
Sirius xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
5%
20.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.05 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 15W 9D 21L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 13W 15D 17L from 45 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.20 PPG, Sirius on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 4W 8D 10L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.29 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Sirius in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Sirius have gone 13W 15D 17L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Sirius away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.50 PPG; Sirius away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Sirius runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orebro SK's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
1
Draws
1
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Sirius?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Sirius have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2021, when Orebro SK 1-1 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Sirius?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 54%, Sirius 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Orebro SK) and 59% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 36% of games; Sirius in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Orebro SK's games and 59% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Orebro SK's matches and 59% of Sirius's.
Do Orebro SK and Sirius tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sirius in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Orebro SK and Sirius drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.56 xG and Sirius 1.05 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Sirius attack 0.83 / defence 1.31, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 47% | Draw 29% | Sirius 24%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 58%, Sirius 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.20 PPG, Sirius 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.