Malmo FF 3-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Malmo FF host Degerfors IF at Eleda Stadion in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Malmo FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF at Eleda Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Malmo FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Malmo FF, 0 for Degerfors IF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2021, ended 5–0 with Malmo FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 73% versus Degerfors IF 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 73% | Degerfors IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 2.87 xG and Degerfors IF 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.410 / defence 1.158 | Degerfors IF attack 0.667 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.109. Malmo FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — their λ of 2.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Malmo FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Malmo FF games / 15 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 78% | Draw 15% | Degerfors IF 7%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | Degerfors IF 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 70% | Degerfors IF 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 78% | Draw 15% | Degerfors IF 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 55% | xG Malmo FF 2.87 / Degerfors IF 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.410 / def 1.158 | Degerfors IF attack 0.667 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Degerfors IF xG
55%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Malmo FF 3 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 78% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Malmo FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (1 meetings): Malmo FF 1W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.41x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
78%
1.29
15%
6.72
7%
13.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
3.73
0.86
Degerfors IF xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.72
15%
Draw
13.51
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
6%
17.69
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.86 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 9W 3D 3L from 15 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 7L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.13 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 games (2.00 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.29 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2021, when Malmo FF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Malmo FF
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 86%, Degerfors IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Malmo FF and 43% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Malmo FF's games and 43% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Malmo FF's matches and 43% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Malmo FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Degerfors IF 3-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 2.87 xG and Degerfors IF 0.86 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.41 / defence 1.16 against Degerfors IF attack 0.67 / defence 1.46, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 78% | Draw 15% | Degerfors IF 7%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 73%, Degerfors IF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.