Hammarby FF 3-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasteras SK FK make the trip to 3Arena to face Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Hammarby FF's favour (2.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Hammarby FF, 1 for Vasteras SK FK and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Hammarby FF 0–1 Vasteras SK FK — a Vasteras SK FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 50% versus Vasteras SK FK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Vasteras SK FK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.77 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.625 / defence 0.816 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.893 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.335. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack rating of 1.625 — their 2.77 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Hammarby FF's last 35 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 5.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 74% | Draw 16% | Vasteras SK FK 10%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.35 | Draw 6.23 | Vasteras SK FK 10.17. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (74%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and Vasteras SK FK's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hammarby FF 40% (last 10 home games) | Vasteras SK FK 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 6 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 74% | Draw 16% | Vasteras SK FK 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Hammarby FF 2.77 / Vasteras SK FK 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.625 / def 0.816 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.893 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.77
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Vasteras SK FK xG
59%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK FAQs
What time does Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 74% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.62) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.89x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Hammarby FF's last 35 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 3-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.23
10%
10.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
3 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.77
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.74
0.97
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.23
16%
Draw
10.17
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
6%
15.94
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
1%
162.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.97 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 19W 5D 6L from 30 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 19L across 30 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasteras SK FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 12W 1D 2L from their last 15 home games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 2W 2D 11L across their last 15 away games, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hammarby FF are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 0.87 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Hammarby FF (Home) vs Vasteras SK FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK Form FAQs
What form are Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 19W 5D 6L in their last 30 games (2.07 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 5D 19L in their last 30 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.47 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won Hammarby FF 3-0 Vasteras SK FK on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Hammarby FF
0
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Hammarby FF have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Hammarby FF 3-0 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 40%, Vasteras SK FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hammarby FF) and 47% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 40% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 47% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Vasteras SK FK 3-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.77 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.97 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.62 / defence 0.82 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 74% | Draw 16% | Vasteras SK FK 10%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, Vasteras SK FK 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.