Halmstad 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and IF Elfsborg meet at Orjans Vall in Allsvenskan (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Halmstad (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Halmstad have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
IF Elfsborg have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
IF Elfsborg's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Halmstad. A 1.30 PPG lead over IF Elfsborg (1.70 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Halmstad's last 10 home games and IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games) — Halmstad have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, IF Elfsborg in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have the stronger record — 6 wins to Halmstad's 2, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Halmstad 2–1 IF Elfsborg — a Halmstad win.
The H2H data backs the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 38% versus IF Elfsborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 48% | IF Elfsborg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.17 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.709 / defence 1.303 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.902 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.349. Halmstad's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Halmstad's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IF Elfsborg's projected output up. Data: built from Halmstad's last 37 games and IF Elfsborg's last 37.
Result probabilities: Halmstad 28% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 47%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 3.54 | Draw 4.02 | IF Elfsborg 2.13. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record in our data (6 wins to 2), but Halmstad carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment. Both teams scored in only 20% of Halmstad's last 10 home games and 30% of IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games, but Poisson BTTS probability is 55% — the model's attack ratings are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (IF Elfsborg 6 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Halmstad (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Halmstad 20% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 8 | Venue: Orjans Vall • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 28% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Halmstad 1.17 / IF Elfsborg 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.709 / def 1.303 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.902 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.58
IF Elfsborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg FAQs
What time does Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Orjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Halmstad 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Orjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 8) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 28% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Halmstad and IF Elfsborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.71x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.90x) against Halmstad's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from Halmstad's last 37 games and IF Elfsborg's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
28%
3.54
25%
4.02
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.76
1.58
IF Elfsborg xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
17.28
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.58 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Halmstad come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 8D 32L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.42 PPG from 60 outings (25W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Halmstad against 1.42 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Halmstad's home form reads 12W 5D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 4D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.62 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Halmstad (Home) vs IF Elfsborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Halmstad
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg Form FAQs
What form are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 20W 8D 32L in their last 60 games (1.13 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 10D 25L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Halmstad's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.37 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won IF Elfsborg 6-1 Halmstad on 3 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Halmstad
1
Draws
7
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Halmstad have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Halmstad and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: IF Elfsborg 4-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 33%, IF Elfsborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Halmstad) and 57% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 37% of games; IF Elfsborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Halmstad and IF Elfsborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Halmstad's recent matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Halmstad's recent games and 57% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and IF Elfsborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Halmstad's recent matches and 67% of IF Elfsborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Halmstad and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Orjans Vall, Regular Season - 8, as Halmstad and IF Elfsborg drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.17 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.58 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.71 / defence 1.30 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 28% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 47%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 48%, IF Elfsborg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.13 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.