Kalmar FF 4-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Kalmar FF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Kalmar FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kalmar FF have won 0, GIF Sundsvall 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 49% versus GIF Sundsvall 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 41% | GIF Sundsvall 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 2.02 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.865 / defence 0.700 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.623 / defence 1.586. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.257. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.586 — this is suppressing Kalmar FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Kalmar FF games / 29 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 71% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 7%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 1.41 | Draw 4.55 | GIF Sundsvall 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Kalmar FF (71%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 30% | GIF Sundsvall 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 71% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 38% | xG Kalmar FF 2.02 / GIF Sundsvall 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.865 / def 0.700 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.623 / def 1.586 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
38%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Kalmar FF 4 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 71% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 7% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.86x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 3-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
71%
1.41
22%
4.59
7%
13.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.57
0.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.41
71%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
13.39
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
41%
2.45
1%
101.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.6 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.55 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 27W 14D 18L from 59 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 30L across 59 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalmar FF by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 15W 7D 7L from 29 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 6W 6D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.25 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 27W 14D 18L in their last 59 games (1.61 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 19W 10D 30L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.79 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kalmar FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Kalmar FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 0-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 38%, GIF Sundsvall 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Kalmar FF) and 52% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 59% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 52% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kalmar FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat GIF Sundsvall 4-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 2.02 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.55 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.86 / defence 0.70 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.62 / defence 1.59, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 71% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 7%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 41%, GIF Sundsvall 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.