Degerfors IF 0-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Hammarby FF at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stora Valla — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Degerfors IF) versus 2.00 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Degerfors IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hammarby FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 2 for Hammarby FF and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 47% versus Hammarby FF 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | Hammarby FF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.32 xG and Hammarby FF 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.005 / defence 1.186 | Hammarby FF attack 1.462 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.045. Hammarby FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Degerfors IF games / 33 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 28% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 49%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Hammarby FF 2.04. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 70% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 28% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Degerfors IF 1.32 / Hammarby FF 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.005 / def 1.186 | Hammarby FF attack 1.462 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Hammarby FF xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 21 April 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Degerfors IF 0 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 28% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 2W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (1.00) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
28%
3.58
23%
4.35
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.13
1.81
Hammarby FF xG
3.58
28%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
5%
21.93
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.81 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 10W 4D 16L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 7L across 30 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 7W 1D 7L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.80 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.47 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Hammarby FF won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Hammarby FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Degerfors IF) and 47% (Hammarby FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games; Hammarby FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Degerfors IF's games and 60% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Degerfors IF's matches and 47% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.32 xG and Hammarby FF 1.81 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Hammarby FF attack 1.46 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 28% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 49%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 57%, Hammarby FF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.