IFK Varnamo 0-0 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Malmo FF make the trip to Finnvedsvallen to face IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Thursday 21 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Malmo FF have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Malmo FF away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.70 xG and Malmo FF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.668 / defence 0.997 | Malmo FF attack 1.106 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.045. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 3 IFK Varnamo games / 33 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 22% | Draw 31% | Malmo FF 47%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Malmo FF 2.13. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — IFK Varnamo's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 22% | Draw 31% | Malmo FF 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 34% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.70 / Malmo FF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.668 / def 0.997 | Malmo FF attack 1.106 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Malmo FF xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 21 April 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 0 Malmo FF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 22% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Malmo FF away split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | CS 7.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.67) and Malmo FF's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.11x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
22%
4.48
31%
3.21
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.85
1.15
Malmo FF xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 18.1 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.15 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Malmo FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won 0-4 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
IFK Varnamo
4
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 0, Malmo FF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Malmo FF 3-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at IFK Varnamo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF finished level at 0-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.70 xG and Malmo FF 1.15 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Malmo FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.67 / defence 1.00 against Malmo FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.77, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 22% | Draw 31% | Malmo FF 47%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.