Sirius 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sirius welcome Hammarby FF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sirius's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sirius have won 0, Hammarby FF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Hammarby FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 63% and Hammarby FF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 60% | Hammarby FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.15 xG and Hammarby FF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.046 / defence 0.995 | Hammarby FF attack 1.414 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.941. Hammarby FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Sirius games / 34 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 32% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 32% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Sirius 1.15 / Hammarby FF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.046 / def 0.995 | Hammarby FF attack 1.414 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.295 / away 0.941 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hammarby FF xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Sirius 0 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Sirius vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Hammarby FF part of?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 32% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sirius and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Record (1 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.05x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.69
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.47
1.32
Hammarby FF xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sirius and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sirius and 1.32 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 18D 23L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 25W 19D 16L from 60 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.25 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.68 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Hammarby FF in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 25W 19D 16L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Hammarby FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.47 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sirius at 63%, Hammarby FF at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sirius and 70% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sirius's games and 67% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sirius's matches and 70% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Sirius and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Sirius 0-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.15 xG and Hammarby FF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Hammarby FF attack 1.41 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 32% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 41%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 60%, Hammarby FF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.25 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.