Kalmar FF 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 17 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Degerfors IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kalmar FF 2W, Degerfors IF 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 4–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 53% versus Degerfors IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 47% | Degerfors IF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.36 xG and Degerfors IF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.886 / defence 0.955 | Degerfors IF attack 0.917 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.213. Data: 32 Kalmar FF games / 32 Degerfors IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 44% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 29%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Degerfors IF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 50% | Degerfors IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 44% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Kalmar FF 1.36 / Degerfors IF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.886 / def 0.955 | Degerfors IF attack 0.917 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Degerfors IF xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Kalmar FF 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 44% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (2 meetings): Kalmar FF 2W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.89) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.92x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.69
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.43
1.06
Degerfors IF xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.06 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 8D 9L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (10W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Kalmar FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kalmar FF's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.13 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.53 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF?
From 7 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, Degerfors IF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Kalmar FF) and 47% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 33% of games; Degerfors IF in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 40% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 47% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.36 xG and Degerfors IF 1.06 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Degerfors IF attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 44% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 29%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 47%, Degerfors IF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.