Mjallby AIF 0-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 5W 1D 4L at Strandvallen — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Mjallby AIF, 4 for Djurgardens IF and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 51% versus Djurgardens IF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 47% | Djurgardens IF 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.00 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.907 / defence 0.950 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.091 / defence 0.690. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.690 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Mjallby AIF games / 48 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 26% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 44%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Djurgardens IF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 30% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 26% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.00 / Djurgardens IF 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.907 / def 0.950 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.091 / def 0.690 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Djurgardens IF xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 3 September 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 26% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (9 meetings): Mjallby AIF 3W | Draws 2 | Djurgardens IF 4W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.09x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
26%
3.78
30%
3.38
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.36
1.36
Djurgardens IF xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.68
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.36 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 47 games, going 28W 11D 8L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.72 PPG from 47 outings (23W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.02 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.72 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 14W 5D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.74 points per game from 23 outings (12W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.98 scored and 1.06 conceded. Djurgardens IF's attacking output running into Mjallby AIF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 11D 8L in their last 47 games (2.02 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.04 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 4-0 on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-2 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 44%, Djurgardens IF 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Mjallby AIF) and 44% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 39%; Djurgardens IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 39% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 44% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Mjallby AIF 0-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.00 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.36 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.09 / defence 0.69, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 26% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 44%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 47%, Djurgardens IF 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 2.02 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.