Hammarby FF 1-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm meet at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at 3Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena.
AIK Stockholm have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Hammarby FF's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Hammarby FF, 2 for AIK Stockholm and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 43% versus AIK Stockholm 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | AIK Stockholm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.66 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.681 / defence 0.768 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.945 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.313. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.681 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Hammarby FF games / 38 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 73% | Draw 16% | AIK Stockholm 11%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | AIK Stockholm 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hammarby FF 40% | AIK Stockholm 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 73% | Draw 16% | AIK Stockholm 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 57% | xG Hammarby FF 2.66 / AIK Stockholm 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.681 / def 0.768 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.945 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
AIK Stockholm xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Hammarby FF 1 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 73% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (8 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 3 | AIK Stockholm 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.68) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.94x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
73%
1.36
16%
6.34
11%
9.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.61
0.95
AIK Stockholm xG
1.36
73%
Home win
6.34
16%
Draw
9.24
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
7%
14.30
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
1%
132.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.95 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 35W 11D 14L from 60 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 18L across 60 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.70 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 21W 5D 4L from 30 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 13W 5D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.43 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 35W 11D 14L in their last 60 games (1.93 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.27 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
AIK Stockholm have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when AIK Stockholm 3-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 43%, AIK Stockholm 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hammarby FF) and 50% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hammarby FF's matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Hammarby FF 1-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.66 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.95 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.68 / defence 0.77 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 73% | Draw 16% | AIK Stockholm 11%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, AIK Stockholm 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.93 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.