Villarreal 2-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 61% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Villarreal welcome Valencia to Estadio de la Ceramica in La Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 22 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Villarreal — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Villarreal have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Villarreal are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valencia stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Valencia have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Villarreal) versus 1.20 (Valencia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Villarreal hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Valencia and 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Villarreal 2–0 Valencia — a Villarreal win.
The head-to-head data gives Villarreal an edge — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Valencia in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 61% versus Valencia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 61% | Valencia 44%). Note also that Valencia surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Villarreal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.08 xG and Valencia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.261 / defence 0.944 | Valencia attack 0.959 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.129. Villarreal carry an above-average attack rating of 1.261 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Villarreal's last 62 games and Valencia's last 62.
Result probabilities: Villarreal 61% | Draw 22% | Valencia 17%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.65 | Draw 4.47 | Valencia 5.92. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Villarreal 4 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Villarreal's last 10 home games and Valencia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Villarreal 50% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 61% | Draw 22% | Valencia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Villarreal 2.08 / Valencia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.261 / def 0.944 | Valencia attack 0.959 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Valencia xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia FAQs
What time does Villarreal vs Valencia kick off?
Villarreal vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Villarreal 2 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Villarreal vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valencia part of?
Villarreal vs Valencia is a La Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 61% chance of winning, Valencia a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Villarreal and Valencia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Villarreal vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Villarreal's last 62 games and Valencia's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.47
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.10
1.02
Valencia xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
2%
47.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.02 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal come into this having played 62 games, going 35W 13D 14L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.16 PPG from 62 outings (17W 21D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Villarreal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Valencia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Villarreal's home form reads 18W 8D 5L across their last 31 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 31 away games (4W 12D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.11 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Valencia
Blended
Villarreal (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Villarreal
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia Form FAQs
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 35W 13D 14L in their last 62 games (1.90 PPG), while Valencia have gone 17W 21D 24L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valencia away?
Villarreal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.00 PPG; Valencia away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Villarreal have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Villarreal
3
Draws
1
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Villarreal have won 6, Valencia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valencia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Valencia 1-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valencia?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 61%, Valencia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Villarreal) and 48% (Valencia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Valencia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Villarreal and Valencia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Villarreal's games and 61% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Villarreal and Valencia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Villarreal's matches and 48% of Valencia's.
Do Villarreal and Valencia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Villarreal's recent matches and 77% of Valencia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Valencia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valencia 2-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.08 xG and Valencia 1.02 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Valencia attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 61% | Draw 22% | Valencia 17%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 61%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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