Villarreal 5-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levante make the trip to Estadio de la Ceramica to face Villarreal in La Liga (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Villarreal at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levante's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Levante's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Villarreal's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Villarreal, 1 for Levante and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2026, ended Villarreal 1–0 Levante — a Villarreal win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Villarreal — key trading statistics (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Levante — key trading statistics (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 61% versus Levante 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 58% | Levante 39%). Note also that Levante surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while Villarreal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.02 xG and Levante 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.265 / defence 0.934 | Levante attack 0.717 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.136. Villarreal carry an above-average attack rating of 1.265 — their 2.02 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Levante's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Villarreal's last 71 games and Levante's last 33.
Result probabilities: Villarreal 67% | Draw 20% | Levante 13%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.50 | Draw 4.98 | Levante 7.62. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Villarreal's last 10 home games and Levante's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Villarreal 70% (last 10 home games) | Levante 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, matchday 34 | Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 67% | Draw 20% | Levante 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Villarreal 2.02 / Levante 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.265 / def 0.934 | Levante attack 0.717 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Levante xG
46%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Villarreal vs Levante FAQs
What time does Villarreal vs Levante kick off?
Villarreal vs Levante kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Levante?
Villarreal 5 - 1 Levante.
Where is Villarreal vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Levante part of?
Villarreal vs Levante is a La Liga fixture (matchday 34) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 67% chance of winning, Levante a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Villarreal and Levante will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Villarreal vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.26x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.72x) against Villarreal's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from Villarreal's last 71 games and Levante's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
67%
1.50
20%
4.98
13%
7.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.78
0.76
Levante xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
7.62
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
57.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Villarreal vs Levante Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.76 for Levante, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal's recent record stands at 20W 5D 8L from 33 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 16L across 33 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 13W 1D 2L from their last 16 home games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Levante's away record stands at 3W 4D 9L across their last 16 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.12 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
Villarreal (Home) vs Levante (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Villarreal
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
❓ Villarreal vs Levante Form FAQs
What form are Villarreal and Levante in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 20W 5D 8L in their last 33 games (1.97 PPG), while Levante have gone 8W 9D 16L in their last 33 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Levante away?
Villarreal's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.50 PPG; Levante away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Villarreal and Levante, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Villarreal have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won Villarreal 5-0 Levante on 3 Jan 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Villarreal
0
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Villarreal vs Levante H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Levante?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Villarreal have won 4, Levante have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Levante last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Villarreal 3-1 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Levante?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 56%, Levante 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Villarreal) and 38% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Levante in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Villarreal vs Levante Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Villarreal and Levante matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Villarreal's recent matches and 38% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Villarreal and Levante matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Villarreal's recent games and 38% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Levante matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Villarreal's recent matches and 75% of Levante's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Levante 5-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.02 xG and Levante 0.76 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Levante attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 67% | Draw 20% | Levante 13%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 58%, Levante 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. Levante (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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