Sevilla 3-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sevilla at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sevilla vs Granada CF encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Granada CF travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sevilla — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Sevilla's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Granada CF stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Granada CF away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Sevilla are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Sevilla have won 2, Granada CF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2023, ended Sevilla 3–0 Granada CF — a Sevilla win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Sevilla in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Granada CF in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 61% versus Granada CF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 48% | Granada CF 39%). Note also that Granada CF surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Sevilla recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.87 xG and Granada CF 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.016 / defence 1.206 | Granada CF attack 0.742 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.098. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.295 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sevilla's projected output up. Granada CF's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Sevilla's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Granada CF's projected output up. Data: built from Sevilla's last 71 games and Granada CF's last 33.

Result probabilities: Sevilla 58% | Draw 23% | Granada CF 19%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.72 | Draw 4.39 | Granada CF 5.19. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sevilla's last 10 home games and Granada CF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sevilla 70% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 40% (last 10 away games).

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