Mallorca 0-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Atletico Madrid in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Madrid (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Mallorca, 2 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Atletico Madrid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mallorca — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Atletico Madrid — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 41% versus Atletico Madrid 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 30% | Atletico Madrid 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.13 xG and Atletico Madrid 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.770 / defence 0.856 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.965 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.084. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Mallorca games / 71 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 28%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Madrid 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Atletico Madrid 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Mallorca 1.13 / Atletico Madrid 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.770 / def 0.856 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.965 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Atletico Madrid xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Mallorca 0 - 1 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 40% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mallorca and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
Record (5 meetings): Mallorca 3W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.77x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (0.96x) against Mallorca's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.13
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.02
0.90
Atletico Madrid xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.90 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 20W 22D 29L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 43W 12D 16L from 71 games, 1.99 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.63 PPG from 35 outings (15W 12D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 15W 8D 12L from 35 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.99 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's season.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.86 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 71 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 20W 22D 29L in their last 71 games (1.15 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 43W 12D 16L in their last 71 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Mallorca's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.63 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 3-0 on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
6
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Atletico Madrid have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Atletico Madrid 3-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 40%, Atletico Madrid 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Mallorca and 40% for Atletico Madrid.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 34%; Mallorca have failed to score in 29% of games; Atletico Madrid in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Mallorca's recent matches and 40% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Mallorca's recent games and 40% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atletico Madrid defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Mallorca 0-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.13 xG and Atletico Madrid 0.90 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 0.86 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 40% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 28%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Atletico Madrid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 30%, Atletico Madrid 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.