Valencia 0-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Valencia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mestalla. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Alaves have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Alaves's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Valencia, 1.20 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valencia lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valencia — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Alaves — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 42% versus Alaves 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valencia 42% | Alaves 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.27 xG and Alaves 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.860 / defence 0.818 | Alaves attack 0.684 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.095. Data: 71 Valencia games / 33 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 52% | Draw 30% | Alaves 17%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Alaves 5.88. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 50% | Alaves 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 52% | Draw 30% | Alaves 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 33% | xG Valencia 1.27 / Alaves 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.860 / def 0.818 | Alaves attack 0.684 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Valencia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Alaves xG
33%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Alaves kick off?
Valencia vs Alaves kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Valencia 0 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Valencia vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Alaves part of?
Valencia vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 52% chance of winning, Alaves a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Valencia and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
Record (3 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 0 | Alaves 2W.
What form are Valencia and Alaves in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Alaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valencia's attack at 0.86x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.68x) against Valencia's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
52%
1.92
30%
3.28
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Valencia xG
Total xG
1.88
0.61
Alaves xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
5%
20.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Valencia and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Valencia and 0.61 for Alaves, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valencia come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 8D 12L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.15 PPG from 33 outings (10W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Valencia against 1.15 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valencia's home form reads 8W 5D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.69 points per game from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.94 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Alaves in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 13W 8D 12L in their last 33 games (1.42 PPG), while Alaves have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Alaves away?
Valencia's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.81 PPG; Alaves away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Valencia or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Alaves in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Valencia
2
Draws
4
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Alaves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Valencia 3-2 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 38%, Alaves 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Valencia and 31% for Alaves.
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Alaves in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Valencia's recent matches and 38% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Valencia's recent games and 31% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Alaves tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Alaves in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Valencia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Valencia 0-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.27 xG and Alaves 0.61 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valencia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against Alaves attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 52% | Draw 30% | Alaves 17%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 42%, Alaves 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alaves's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.42 PPG, Alaves 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.