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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Sociedad and Alaves share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad and Alaves finished level at 3-3 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 2.23 xG and Alaves 1.26 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.22 / defence 1.09 against Alaves attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 59% | Draw 20% | Alaves 21%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 50%, Alaves 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.28 PPG, Alaves 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights