Real Sociedad 3-3 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Real Sociedad face Alaves.

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Full Analysis

Reale Arena plays host to Real Sociedad versus Alaves in La Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Real Sociedad (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Real Sociedad have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Alaves have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Alaves's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Real Sociedad, 1.30 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Real Sociedad's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) — Real Sociedad have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Alaves in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Alaves edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Real Sociedad 0–1 Alaves — a Alaves win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 50% versus Alaves 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Sociedad 50% | Alaves 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 2.23 xG and Alaves 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 1.222 / defence 1.089 | Alaves attack 1.031 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.122. Data: built from Real Sociedad's last 68 games and Alaves's last 68.

Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 59% | Draw 20% | Alaves 21%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 1.69 | Draw 4.99 | Alaves 4.84. The model has a clear lean to Real Sociedad (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Real Sociedad's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Real Sociedad 90% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 60% (last 10 away games).

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