Real Madrid 2-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Real Madrid at 82% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Madrid vs Granada CF encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu plays host to Real Madrid versus Granada CF in La Liga (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Real Madrid (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Real Madrid have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Granada CF's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Granada CF's away record over their last 7 away games: 0W 1D 6L (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Real Madrid. A 1.90 PPG lead over Granada CF (2.30 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Real Madrid, 0 for Granada CF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Feb 2022, ended Real Madrid 1–0 Granada CF — a Real Madrid win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Real Madrid half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Real Madrid 50% and Granada CF 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 64% | Granada CF 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 3.04 xG and Granada CF 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.358 / defence 0.760 | Granada CF attack 0.839 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.181. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack rating of 1.358 — their 3.04 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.472 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Real Madrid's projected output up. Real Madrid have a tight defence (rating 0.760), which is pulling Granada CF's projected output down. Data: built from Real Madrid's last 52 games and Granada CF's last 14.

Result probabilities: Real Madrid 82% | Draw 13% | Granada CF 5%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.22 | Draw 7.97 | Granada CF 18.28. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (82%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 82% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Real Madrid's last 10 home games and Granada CF's last 7 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Real Madrid 60% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 57% (last 7 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights