Mallorca 0-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 3W 6D 1L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Alaves have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in La Liga this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Mallorca, 0.90 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Mallorca 2W, Alaves 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Mallorca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 50% versus Alaves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 29% | Alaves 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.17 xG and Alaves 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.739 / defence 0.858 | Alaves attack 0.721 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.170. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Mallorca games / 14 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 35% | Alaves 21%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Alaves 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 40% | Alaves 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 35% | Alaves 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Mallorca 1.17 / Alaves 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.739 / def 0.858 | Alaves attack 0.721 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Alaves xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Alaves kick off?
Mallorca vs Alaves kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Alaves?
Mallorca 0 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Mallorca vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Alaves part of?
Mallorca vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 44% chance of winning, Alaves a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Mallorca and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Alaves?
Record (2 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Mallorca and Alaves in?
Mallorca (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Alaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.74x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.72x) against Mallorca's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
44%
2.25
35%
2.90
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.89
0.72
Alaves xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.72 for Alaves, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca come into this having played 14 games, going 1W 7D 6L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.71 PPG for Mallorca against 1.07 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mallorca's home form reads 0W 5D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Alaves in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 1W 7D 6L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Alaves have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Alaves away?
Mallorca's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 0.83 PPG; Alaves away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
3
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Alaves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Alaves 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Alaves?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 50%, Alaves 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Mallorca and 33% for Alaves.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 50% of games; Alaves in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mallorca's games and 67% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Mallorca's recent games and 33% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Alaves tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Alaves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Alaves finished level at 0-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.17 xG and Alaves 0.72 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.74 / defence 0.86 against Alaves attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 44% | Draw 35% | Alaves 21%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 29%, Alaves 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alaves's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 0.71 PPG, Alaves 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.