Granada CF 1-1 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Athletic Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Granada CF and Athletic Club meet at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 December 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Granada CF have posted 1W 3D 3L at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Athletic Club (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Athletic Club arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Granada CF, 0 for Athletic Club and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Granada CF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Granada CF — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Athletic Club — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 67% versus Athletic Club 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 53% | Athletic Club 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.23 xG and Athletic Club 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.966 / defence 1.437 | Athletic Club attack 0.976 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.147. Data: 15 Granada CF games / 53 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 27% | Draw 28% | Athletic Club 44%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Athletic Club 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 86% | Athletic Club 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Monday 11 Dec 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 27% | Draw 28% | Athletic Club 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Granada CF 1.23 / Athletic Club 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.966 / def 1.437 | Athletic Club attack 0.976 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Athletic Club xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Athletic Club kick off?
Granada CF vs Athletic Club kicked off at 15:15 on Monday 11 December 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Granada CF 1 - 1 Athletic Club.
Where is Granada CF vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Athletic Club part of?
Granada CF vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 27% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Granada CF and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Athletic Club?
Record (2 meetings): Granada CF 1W | Draws 1 | Athletic Club 0W.
What form are Granada CF and Athletic Club in?
Granada CF (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Granada CF's attack at 0.97x the league average against Athletic Club's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (0.98x) against Granada CF's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
27%
3.65
28%
3.54
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.84
1.61
Athletic Club xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
5%
18.23
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.61 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Granada CF have picked up 0.47 PPG on a 1W 4D 10L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club's form line: 8W 4D 3L from 15 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Granada CF have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Granada CF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 1W 4D 10L in their last 15 games (0.47 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.86 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Granada CF or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Granada CF have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Granada CF
3
Draws
0
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Athletic Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 1, Athletic Club have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Athletic Club 1-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Athletic Club?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 86%, Athletic Club 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Granada CF) and 29% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 43%; Athletic Club in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Athletic Club?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Granada CF's games and 29% of Athletic Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Granada CF's recent games and 29% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF and Athletic Club share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF and Athletic Club finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.23 xG and Athletic Club 1.61 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.97 / defence 1.44 against Athletic Club attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 27% | Draw 28% | Athletic Club 44%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 53%, Athletic Club 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Athletic Club's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Granada CF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.