Almeria 0-0 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Betis make the trip to Power Horse Stadium to face Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Almeria (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's home record at Power Horse Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Real Betis have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Betis have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Real Betis are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Almeria register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Real Betis in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almeria lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 2–3 with Real Betis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almeria — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Real Betis — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 69% versus Real Betis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 65% | Real Betis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.56 xG and Real Betis 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.980 / defence 1.542 | Real Betis attack 0.930 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.162. Data: 52 Almeria games / 52 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 39%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Real Betis 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Betis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 70% | Real Betis 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Almeria 1.56 / Real Betis 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.980 / def 1.542 | Real Betis attack 0.930 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Real Betis xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Real Betis kick off?
Almeria vs Real Betis kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Real Betis?
Almeria 0 - 0 Real Betis.
Where is Almeria vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Real Betis part of?
Almeria vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 34% chance of winning, Real Betis a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Almeria and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Real Betis?
Record (2 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 0 | Real Betis 2W.
What form are Almeria and Real Betis in?
Almeria (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Real Betis (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almeria's attack rating (0.98) and Real Betis's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.93x) against Almeria's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.76
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Almeria xG
Total xG
3.22
1.67
Real Betis xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
6%
15.40
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Almeria and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Almeria and 1.67 for Real Betis, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almeria come into this having played 52 games, going 11W 11D 30L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Betis sit at 1.62 PPG from 52 outings (23W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Almeria's home form reads 10W 5D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Real Betis have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almeria are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.23 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 11D 30L in their last 52 games (0.85 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 23W 15D 14L in their last 52 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Real Betis away?
Almeria's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.35 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Almeria or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Real Betis in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
1
Draws
3
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Real Betis?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Real Betis have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Real Betis 3-2 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 69%, Real Betis 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Almeria) and 46% (Real Betis). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Real Betis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Real Betis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Almeria's games and 54% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Almeria's matches and 46% of Real Betis's.
Do Almeria and Real Betis tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almeria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Almeria and Real Betis drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.56 xG and Real Betis 1.67 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almeria fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Real Betis landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.98 / defence 1.54 against Real Betis attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 34% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 39%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 65%, Real Betis 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.