Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Real Madrid (65%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Real Madrid face Alaves.

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Analysis & Preview

Alaves travel to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu to take on Real Madrid in La Liga (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 21:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Real Madrid have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Real Madrid have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Alaves stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Alaves away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Real Madrid's games and 70% of Alaves's (from Real Madrid's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Real Madrid: 7 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Alaves, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Real Madrid 2–1 Alaves — a Real Madrid win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Real Madrid and goals — 7 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Real Madrid trading profile (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Alaves trading profile (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 56% versus Alaves 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 59% | Alaves 42%). Note also that Alaves surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Real Madrid recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 58% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.51 xG and Alaves 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.327 / defence 0.973 | Alaves attack 1.148 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.117. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack rating of 1.327 — their 2.51 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Alaves's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Real Madrid's projected output up. Data: built from Real Madrid's last 69 games and Alaves's last 69.

Result probabilities: Real Madrid 65% | Draw 18% | Alaves 17%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.54 | Draw 5.62 | Alaves 5.77. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.51 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Real Madrid's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Real Madrid 60% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 70% (last 10 away games).

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