Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Real Madrid (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Osasuna face Real Madrid.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Osasuna and Real Madrid meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Osasuna (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Osasuna's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Real Madrid's record over their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Real Madrid's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 0.90 PPG clear of Osasuna over their recent games (2.70 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Real Madrid, who have 6 wins from 9 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2025, ended Osasuna 0–1 Real Madrid — a Real Madrid win.

Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading & In-Play

Osasuna — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Real Madrid — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Real Madrid 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Real Madrid 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Osasuna surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Real Madrid have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.19 xG and Real Madrid 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.124 / defence 1.103 | Real Madrid attack 1.359 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.140. Real Madrid bring a tight defence (rating 0.704, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Osasuna's projected output down. Real Madrid have an above-average attack rating of 1.359, which lifts their away xG to 1.71. Data: built from Osasuna's last 62 games and Real Madrid's last 62.

Result probabilities: Osasuna 25% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 48%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.98 | Draw 3.77 | Real Madrid 2.07. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Real Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 70% (last 10 home games) | Real Madrid 50% (last 10 away games).

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