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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Real Madrid 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Real Madrid 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.19 xG and Real Madrid 1.71 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Real Madrid attack 1.36 / defence 0.70, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 25% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 48%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Real Madrid 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Real Madrid's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights