Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Osasuna at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Espanyol.

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Fixture Analysis

Osasuna welcome Espanyol to Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Osasuna — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Osasuna have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Osasuna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Espanyol have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Espanyol have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 0.90 PPG versus Espanyol's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Osasuna's last 10 home games and Espanyol's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Osasuna, 1 for Espanyol and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.1 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Osasuna 0–1 Espanyol — a Espanyol win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.1 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Osasuna in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Espanyol in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 60% versus Espanyol 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 47% | Espanyol 45%). Note also that Espanyol surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Osasuna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.73 xG and Espanyol 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.000 / defence 1.075 | Espanyol attack 0.940 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.149. Data: built from Osasuna's last 74 games and Espanyol's last 74.

Result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 26%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.97 | Draw 4.22 | Espanyol 3.91. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Espanyol's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 90% (last 10 home games) | Espanyol 80% (last 10 away games).

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