Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Athletic Club meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 4D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Athletic Club (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Athletic Club arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Osasuna register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Athletic Club in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Osasuna 1W, Athletic Club 3W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Athletic Club half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Athletic Club 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 46% | Athletic Club 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.34 xG and Athletic Club 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.081 / defence 1.128 | Athletic Club attack 1.007 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.137. Data: 55 Osasuna games / 56 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Athletic Club 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Athletic Club (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 80% | Athletic Club 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Osasuna 1.34 / Athletic Club 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.081 / def 1.128 | Athletic Club attack 1.007 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Athletic Club xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Athletic Club kick off?
Osasuna vs Athletic Club kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Osasuna 1 - 2 Athletic Club.
Where is Osasuna vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Athletic Club part of?
Osasuna vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 38% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
Record (6 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 2 | Athletic Club 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Athletic Club in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Athletic Club's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (1.01x) against Osasuna's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.82
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.63
1.29
Athletic Club xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.29 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 18W 16D 21L from 55 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 10L across 55 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Osasuna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 11W 8D 8L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 10W 8D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Athletic Club's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.60 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 18W 16D 21L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 28W 17D 10L in their last 55 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Athletic Club away?
Osasuna's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.52 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
4
Draws
5
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Athletic Club have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 56%, Athletic Club 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Osasuna) and 33% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 41%; Athletic Club in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Osasuna's recent matches and 44% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Osasuna's recent games and 33% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Athletic Club defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.34 xG and Athletic Club 1.29 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Athletic Club attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 38% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Athletic Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Athletic Club 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Athletic Club's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.