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Poisson rates Girona at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Valladolid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Valladolid at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Girona — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valladolid have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 7L across 8 road games this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game.
Girona carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Girona have won 1, Valladolid 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Valladolid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Valladolid in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 47% versus Valladolid 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 53% | Valladolid 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.65 xG and Valladolid 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.270 / defence 1.212 | Valladolid attack 0.772 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.153. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Girona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Girona games / 17 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 71% | Draw 16% | Valladolid 13%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.41 | Draw 6.25 | Valladolid 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Girona (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Girona 40% | Valladolid 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 20 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 0 | Valladolid 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Girona 2 – 2 Valladolid • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Girona 50% / Draw 0% / Valladolid 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 71% / draw 16% / away 13% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.73 (72% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 61% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Girona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L • Valladolid (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W • Girona home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Valladolid away split: 0.38 PPG from 8 | GF 0.75 / GA 2.75 | CS 0 • Form edge: Girona lead by 0.70 PPG (1.40 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (Girona): Poisson projects 2.65 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.20 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Valladolid): Poisson projects 1.08 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.75 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.73 (72% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 61% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Girona — Girona at 71% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 71% | Draw 16% | Valladolid 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 61% | xG Girona 2.65 / Valladolid 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.270 / def 1.212 | Valladolid attack 0.772 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Girona (71%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Valladolid xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Valladolid kick off?
Girona vs Valladolid kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 December 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Valladolid?
Girona 3 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Girona vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Valladolid part of?
Girona vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 71% chance of winning, Valladolid a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Girona and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valladolid?
• Record (2 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 0 | Valladolid 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Girona 2 – 2 Valladolid • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Girona 50% / Draw 0% / Valladolid 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 71% / draw 16% / away 13% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.73 (72% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 61% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Girona and Valladolid in?
• Girona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L • Valladolid (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W • Girona home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Valladolid away split: 0.38 PPG from 8 | GF 0.75 / GA 2.75 | CS 0 • Form edge: Girona lead by 0.70 PPG (1.40 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (Girona): Poisson projects 2.65 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.20 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Valladolid): Poisson projects 1.08 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.75 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.73 (72% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 61% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Girona — Girona at 71% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Girona vs Valladolid?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture