🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Valencia at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Valencia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Alaves have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Valencia, 0.60 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valencia lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Valencia — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Alaves — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 44% versus Alaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 43% | Alaves 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.80 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.045 / defence 1.084 | Alaves attack 0.931 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.147. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Valencia games / 55 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Valencia 52% | Draw 23% | Alaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Alaves 4.17. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 50% | Alaves 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights