Las Palmas 1-0 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Las Palmas at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Espanyol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Las Palmas and Espanyol meet at Estadio de Gran Canaria in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Las Palmas (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio de Gran Canaria this season.
Espanyol have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol away from home this season: 0W 1D 7L from 8 away games — 0.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.12 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Las Palmas. A 0.80 PPG lead over Espanyol (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Las Palmas half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Espanyol half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Las Palmas 71% and Espanyol 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 59% | Espanyol 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.83 xG and Espanyol 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.924 / defence 1.160 | Espanyol attack 0.676 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.162. Espanyol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Las Palmas's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Las Palmas games / 17 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 59% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 18%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Espanyol 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Las Palmas (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Las Palmas at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 80% | Espanyol 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 59% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Las Palmas 1.83 / Espanyol 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.924 / def 1.160 | Espanyol attack 0.676 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Espanyol xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Espanyol kick off?
Las Palmas vs Espanyol kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Espanyol?
Las Palmas 1 - 0 Espanyol.
Where is Las Palmas vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Espanyol part of?
Las Palmas vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 59% chance of winning, Espanyol a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Las Palmas and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Espanyol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Las Palmas and Espanyol in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Espanyol (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.92) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (0.68x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.42
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.74
0.91
Espanyol xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
3%
33.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Las Palmas and 0.91 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Espanyol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 10L across 17 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Las Palmas against 0.88 for Espanyol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Espanyol's away record stands at 0W 1D 7L across 8 trips, a 0.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Las Palmas are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 0.94 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Las Palmas have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Espanyol away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.12 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
0
Draws
1
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Espanyol?
From 2 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 1, Espanyol have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Espanyol 2-0 Las Palmas.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 75%, Espanyol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Las Palmas) and 50% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Espanyol in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Espanyol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Las Palmas's games and 50% of Espanyol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Las Palmas vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Las Palmas's recent games and 50% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Espanyol tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Las Palmas edge out Espanyol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Espanyol 1-0 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.83 xG and Espanyol 0.91 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Espanyol landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Espanyol attack 0.68 / defence 1.39, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 59% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 18%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 59%, Espanyol 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Espanyol's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.12 PPG, Espanyol 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.