Mallorca 0-1 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Real Betis — this Mallorca vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Real Betis travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mallorca have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Real Betis stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Real Betis have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.10 PPG, Real Betis 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Real Betis have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Mallorca.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Mallorca 0–2 Real Betis — a Real Betis win.
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Real Betis in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 41% versus Real Betis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 29% | Real Betis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.16 xG and Real Betis 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.822 / defence 0.814 | Real Betis attack 0.782 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.199. Real Betis's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Mallorca's last 59 games and Real Betis's last 59.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Real Betis 23%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.28 | Draw 2.98 | Real Betis 4.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mallorca's last 10 home games and Real Betis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Mallorca 50% (last 10 home games) | Real Betis 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Real Betis 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Mallorca 1.16 / Real Betis 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.822 / def 0.814 | Real Betis attack 0.782 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Real Betis xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Real Betis FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Real Betis kick off?
Mallorca vs Real Betis kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Mallorca 0 - 1 Real Betis.
Where is Mallorca vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Real Betis part of?
Mallorca vs Real Betis is a La Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 44% chance of winning, Real Betis a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Mallorca and Real Betis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Mallorca vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.82) and Real Betis's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 59 games and Real Betis's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
44%
2.28
34%
2.98
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.93
0.76
Real Betis xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Real Betis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.76 for Real Betis, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 17W 19D 23L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Real Betis's form line: 24W 19D 16L from 59 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.19 PPG, Real Betis on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.66 PPG from their last 29 home games (12W 12D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 9W 10D 10L from their last 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Real Betis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
Mallorca (Home) vs Real Betis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Mallorca vs Real Betis Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 19D 23L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 24W 19D 16L in their last 59 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Real Betis away?
Mallorca's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.66 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Real Betis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Betis have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Nov 2025, when Real Betis won Real Betis 3-0 Mallorca.
Mallorca's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mallorca
1
Draws
8
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Real Betis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Betis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 1, Real Betis have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Real Betis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Mallorca 1-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 41%, Real Betis 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Mallorca and 45% for Real Betis.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 28% of games; Real Betis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Real Betis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Real Betis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Mallorca's recent matches and 52% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Real Betis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Mallorca's recent games and 45% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Real Betis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Mallorca's recent matches and 62% of Real Betis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Mallorca 0-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.16 xG and Real Betis 0.76 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.82 / defence 0.81 against Real Betis attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Real Betis 23%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Real Betis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 29%, Real Betis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Real Betis 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Betis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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