Mallorca 0-1 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mallorca at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Real Betis travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Betis have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.10 PPG, Real Betis 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Real Betis, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Mallorca.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Real Betis winning.
It is worth noting that Real Betis have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Real Betis in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 41% versus Real Betis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 29% | Real Betis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.16 xG and Real Betis 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.822 / defence 0.814 | Real Betis attack 0.782 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.199. Data: 59 Mallorca games / 59 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Real Betis 23%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Real Betis 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 50% | Real Betis 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Real Betis 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Mallorca 1.16 / Real Betis 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.822 / def 0.814 | Real Betis attack 0.782 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Real Betis xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Real Betis kick off?
Mallorca vs Real Betis kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Mallorca 0 - 1 Real Betis.
Where is Mallorca vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Real Betis part of?
Mallorca vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 44% chance of winning, Real Betis a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Mallorca and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Betis?
Record (5 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 1 | Real Betis 4W.
What form are Mallorca and Real Betis in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Real Betis (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.82) and Real Betis's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
44%
2.28
34%
2.98
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.93
0.76
Real Betis xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.76 for Real Betis, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 17W 19D 23L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis's form line: 24W 19D 16L from 59 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.19 PPG, Real Betis on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.66 PPG from 29 outings (12W 12D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 9W 10D 10L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Real Betis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 19D 23L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 24W 19D 16L in their last 59 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Real Betis away?
Mallorca's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.66 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Real Betis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Real Betis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Betis have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Real Betis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mallorca
1
Draws
8
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Real Betis have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Mallorca 1-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 41%, Real Betis 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Mallorca and 45% for Real Betis.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 28% of games; Real Betis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Mallorca's recent matches and 52% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Mallorca's recent games and 45% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Real Betis tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Mallorca 0-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.16 xG and Real Betis 0.76 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.82 / defence 0.81 against Real Betis attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Real Betis 23%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Real Betis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 29%, Real Betis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Real Betis 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Betis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.