Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 38%, yet in-form Osasuna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sevilla vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sevilla welcome Osasuna to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sevilla are significantly better at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Osasuna's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sevilla's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sevilla, 2 for Osasuna and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 60% versus Osasuna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 50% | Osasuna 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.64 xG and Osasuna 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.923 / defence 1.300 | Osasuna attack 1.062 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.188. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Sevilla's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Sevilla games / 58 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 38% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 38%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Osasuna 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Osasuna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 38% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Sevilla 1.64 / Osasuna 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.923 / def 1.300 | Osasuna attack 1.062 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Osasuna xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Osasuna kick off?
Sevilla vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Sevilla vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Osasuna part of?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 38% chance of winning, Osasuna a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sevilla and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Record (5 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in?
Sevilla (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sevilla's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
38%
2.65
25%
4.03
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Sevilla xG
Total xG
3.28
1.64
Osasuna xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
7%
13.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.64 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sevilla's recent record stands at 16W 17D 25L from 58 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 24L across 58 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.12 PPG, Osasuna on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sevilla have managed 9W 8D 11L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.07 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 16W 17D 25L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 22W 12D 24L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Osasuna away?
Sevilla's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.25 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sevilla's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sevilla
4
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Osasuna have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 64%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sevilla) and 39% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sevilla's games and 50% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sevilla vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sevilla's recent games and 39% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Osasuna tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 22, as Sevilla and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.64 xG and Osasuna 1.64 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.92 / defence 1.30 against Osasuna attack 1.06 / defence 1.30, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 38% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 38%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 50%, Osasuna 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.12 PPG, Osasuna 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.