Athletic Club 4-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Athletic Club at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Mallorca encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Athletic Club welcome Mallorca to San Mamés Barria in La Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 2 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Athletic Club have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Athletic Club have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Athletic Club are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Mallorca — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Mallorca's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Athletic Club have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Athletic Club have won 1, Mallorca 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Athletic Club 0–0 Mallorca — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Mallorca in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 40% versus Mallorca 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 45% | Mallorca 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.86 xG and Mallorca 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.448 / defence 0.894 | Mallorca attack 0.745 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.162. Athletic Club carry an above-average attack rating of 1.448 — their 1.86 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Athletic Club's last 60 games and Mallorca's last 60.

Result probabilities: Athletic Club 62% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 14%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.61 | Draw 4.21 | Mallorca 7.11. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches — though recent form (Athletic Club's last 10 home games and Mallorca's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Athletic Club 50% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 40% (last 10 away games).

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