Almeria 0-3 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 39%, yet in-form Alaves provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almeria vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almeria host Alaves at Power Horse Stadium in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almeria — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almeria have posted 0W 5D 5L at Power Horse Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Alaves are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almeria register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alaves in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Almeria have won 0, Alaves 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Almeria in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Alaves in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 67% versus Alaves 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 67% | Alaves 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.19 xG and Alaves 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.780 / defence 1.068 | Alaves attack 0.806 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.153. Almeria's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Almeria games / 21 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 39% | Draw 32% | Alaves 29%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Alaves 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almeria as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alaves (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Almeria 60% | Alaves 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 39% | Draw 32% | Alaves 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Almeria 1.19 / Alaves 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.780 / def 1.068 | Alaves attack 0.806 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Almeria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Alaves xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Alaves kick off?
Almeria vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 26 January 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Alaves?
Almeria 0 - 3 Alaves.
Where is Almeria vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Alaves part of?
Almeria vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 39% chance of winning, Alaves a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Almeria and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 0 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Almeria and Alaves in?
Almeria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Alaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almeria's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Alaves's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.13
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.18
0.99
Alaves xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Almeria and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Almeria and 0.99 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Almeria have picked up 0.29 PPG on a 0W 6D 15L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves's form line: 6W 5D 10L from 21 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Alaves are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Almeria have posted 0.50 PPG from 10 outings (0W 5D 5L).
On the road, Alaves have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.90 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Alaves in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 0W 6D 15L in their last 21 games (0.29 PPG), while Alaves have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Alaves away?
Alaves's away record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 0.50 PPG; Alaves away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Almeria
0
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Alaves?
From 2 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Alaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Almeria 0-3 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 60%, Alaves 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Almeria) and 40% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Almeria have failed to score in 40% of games; Alaves in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Almeria's games and 60% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Almeria's recent games and 40% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Alaves tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Alaves in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alaves run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Almeria 0-3 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.19 xG and Alaves 0.99 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Almeria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Alaves outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Alaves attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 39% | Draw 32% | Alaves 29%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 67%, Alaves 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alaves's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Alaves arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.