Mallorca 2-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Mallorca take on Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Mallorca's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mallorca lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 39% versus Rayo Vallecano 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 30% | Rayo Vallecano 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.88 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.792 / defence 0.845 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.806 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.161. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Mallorca games / 61 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 33% | Draw 39% | Rayo Vallecano 28%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Rayo Vallecano 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Rayo Vallecano's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 50% | Rayo Vallecano 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 33% | Draw 39% | Rayo Vallecano 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 34% | xG Mallorca 0.88 / Rayo Vallecano 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.792 / def 0.845 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.806 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Rayo Vallecano xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Mallorca 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 33% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 28% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (5 meetings): Mallorca 3W | Draws 1 | Rayo Vallecano 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.79x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.81x) against Mallorca's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
39%
2.59
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.68
0.79
Rayo Vallecano xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 14.8 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.79 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca's recent record stands at 17W 19D 25L from 61 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 24L across 61 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Mallorca against 1.20 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 12W 12D 6L from 30 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 19D 25L in their last 61 games (1.15 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 18W 19D 24L in their last 61 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Mallorca's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.60 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 3-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mallorca
2
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 6, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Mallorca 3-0 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 40%, Rayo Vallecano 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Mallorca and 43% for Rayo Vallecano.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 37%; Mallorca have failed to score in 30% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Mallorca's recent matches and 40% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Mallorca's recent games and 43% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Rayo Vallecano 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.88 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.79 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.79 / defence 0.84 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.81 / defence 0.84, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 33% | Draw 39% | Rayo Vallecano 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 30%, Rayo Vallecano 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.15 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.