Las Palmas 2-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Gran Canaria plays host to Las Palmas versus Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Las Palmas's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio de Gran Canaria this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valencia (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Las Palmas, 1.70 for Valencia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Las Palmas lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Valencia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Las Palmas goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 44% versus Valencia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 30% | Valencia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.44 xG and Valencia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.973 / defence 0.936 | Valencia attack 1.023 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.163. Data: 23 Las Palmas games / 61 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 42% | Draw 30% | Valencia 27%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Valencia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Las Palmas as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 50% | Valencia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 42% | Draw 30% | Valencia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Las Palmas 1.44 / Valencia 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.973 / def 0.936 | Valencia attack 1.023 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Valencia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Valencia kick off?
Las Palmas vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Valencia?
Las Palmas 2 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Las Palmas vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Valencia part of?
Las Palmas vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 42% chance of winning, Valencia a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Las Palmas and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Valencia?
Record (1 meetings): Las Palmas 0W | Draws 0 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Valencia in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Valencia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Las Palmas's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (1.02x) against Las Palmas's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
42%
2.35
30%
3.30
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.55
1.11
Valencia xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
6%
15.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.11 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Las Palmas come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 5D 9L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (10W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.52 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Las Palmas's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Las Palmas are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.26 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 23 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Valencia in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Valencia have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Valencia away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.64 PPG; Valencia away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Valencia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Las Palmas
0
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 2, Valencia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Las Palmas 2-3 Valencia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 54%, Valencia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Las Palmas) and 54% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Valencia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 54% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Las Palmas's recent games and 54% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Valencia tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Valencia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valencia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Valencia 2-0 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.44 xG and Valencia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valencia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Valencia attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 42% | Draw 30% | Valencia 27%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 30%, Valencia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.39 PPG, Valencia 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.