Sevilla 1-0 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sevilla face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán plays host to Sevilla versus Atletico Madrid in La Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sevilla have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Sevilla's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico Madrid's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Atletico Madrid's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Atletico Madrid are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Atletico Madrid have the stronger record — 3 wins to Sevilla's 0, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Sevilla 0–1 Atletico Madrid — a Atletico Madrid win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Atletico Madrid have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Atletico Madrid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 62% versus Atletico Madrid 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 51% | Atletico Madrid 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.10 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.909 / defence 1.263 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.124 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.163. Sevilla's defence rating of 1.263 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atletico Madrid's projected output up. Data: built from Sevilla's last 61 games and Atletico Madrid's last 61.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 23% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 48%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 4.28 | Draw 3.54 | Atletico Madrid 2.07. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sevilla's last 10 home games and Atletico Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sevilla 70% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Madrid 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 23% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Sevilla 1.10 / Atletico Madrid 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.909 / def 1.263 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.124 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Atletico Madrid xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid FAQs
What time does Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Sevilla 1 - 0 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 23% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sevilla and Atletico Madrid will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sevilla's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (1.12x) against Sevilla's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from Sevilla's last 61 games and Atletico Madrid's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
23%
4.28
28%
3.54
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.75
1.65
Atletico Madrid xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
4%
22.30
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.65 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sevilla come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 18D 26L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 2.05 PPG from 61 outings (38W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Sevilla — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sevilla's home form reads 9W 9D 12L across their last 30 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.63 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.89 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Sevilla (Home) vs Atletico Madrid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sevilla
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Form FAQs
What form are Sevilla and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 17W 18D 26L in their last 61 games (1.13 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 38W 11D 12L in their last 61 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.20 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won Atletico Madrid 6-1 Sevilla on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sevilla
1
Draws
7
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sevilla have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Sevilla 1-3 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 63%, Atletico Madrid 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sevilla) and 40% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sevilla and Atletico Madrid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Sevilla's recent matches and 40% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sevilla and Atletico Madrid matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sevilla's recent games and 40% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Atletico Madrid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sevilla's recent matches and 63% of Atletico Madrid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.10 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.65 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Madrid landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 23% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 48%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sevilla win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 51%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Sevilla winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sevilla (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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