Levante 4-2 Oviedo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Levante at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levante face Oviedo.

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Analysis & Preview

Oviedo travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante in La Liga (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Levante — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Levante's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Oviedo stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Oviedo's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Levante at 0.90 PPG versus Oviedo's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Levante have won 1, Oviedo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Levante 2–0 Oviedo — a Levante win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Levante in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Oviedo in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Oviedo 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 43% | Oviedo 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.37 xG and Oviedo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.666 / defence 1.160 | Oviedo attack 0.838 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.125. Levante's attack rating of 0.666 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. Oviedo's defence rating of 1.324 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levante's projected output up. Data: built from Levante's last 28 games and Oviedo's last 28.

Result probabilities: Levante 42% | Draw 28% | Oviedo 29%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.35 | Draw 3.55 | Oviedo 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levante 50% (last 10 home games) | Oviedo 50% (last 10 away games).

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