Levante 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Girona at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levante face Girona.

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Full Analysis

Estadio Ciudad de Valencia plays host to Levante versus Girona in La Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Levante have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Levante's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Girona's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Girona have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Levante, 1.50 for Girona — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Levante edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Levante 4–0 Girona — a Levante win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Levante half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Girona half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 46% versus Girona 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 46% | Girona 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.02 xG and Girona 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.677 / defence 1.175 | Girona attack 0.994 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.142. Levante's attack rating of 0.677 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Levante's last 26 games and Girona's last 64.

Result probabilities: Levante 28% | Draw 28% | Girona 44%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.53 | Draw 3.58 | Girona 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levante 40% (last 10 home games) | Girona 70% (last 10 away games).

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