Granada CF 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cadiz at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Granada CF face Cadiz.

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Analysis & Preview

Cadiz travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF in La Liga (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Granada CF — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

At home, Granada CF have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 home games (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Cadiz have recorded 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

When travelling, Cadiz have posted 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Granada CF 0.30 PPG, Cadiz 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 78% of Granada CF's games and 60% of Cadiz's (from Granada CF's last 9 home games and Cadiz's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Granada CF, 0 for Cadiz and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Feb 2022, ended Granada CF 0–0 Cadiz — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Granada CF trading profile (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

Cadiz trading profile (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 61% versus Cadiz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 50% | Cadiz 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.25 xG and Cadiz 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.848 / defence 1.480 | Cadiz attack 0.847 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.121. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.480 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cadiz's projected output up. Data: built from Granada CF's last 18 games and Cadiz's last 56.

Result probabilities: Granada CF 31% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 38%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.22 | Draw 3.26 | Cadiz 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Granada CF 78% (last 9 home games) | Cadiz 60% (last 10 away games).

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