Real Betis 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Betis (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Betis face Granada CF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Betis and Granada CF meet at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Real Betis have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis at Estadio Benito Villamarín this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Benito Villamarín. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Real Betis are significantly better at Estadio Benito Villamarín than their overall form suggests.
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF away from home this season: 0W 1D 8L from 9 away games — 0.11 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Real Betis's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Real Betis 2W, Granada CF 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 58% versus Granada CF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Betis 32% | Granada CF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.90 xG and Granada CF 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 0.990 / defence 0.733 | Granada CF attack 0.735 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.131. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Real Betis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Real Betis's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Real Betis games / 19 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 67% | Draw 24% | Granada CF 10%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.49 | Draw 4.17 | Granada CF 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Real Betis (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Real Betis 50% | Granada CF 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 67% | Draw 24% | Granada CF 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 40% | xG Real Betis 1.90 / Granada CF 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 0.990 / def 0.733 | Granada CF attack 0.735 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Granada CF xG
40%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Granada CF kick off?
Real Betis vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Granada CF?
Real Betis 1 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Real Betis vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Granada CF part of?
Real Betis vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 67% chance of winning, Granada CF a 10% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Real Betis and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Granada CF?
Record (3 meetings): Real Betis 2W | Draws 1 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Real Betis and Granada CF in?
Real Betis (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Real Betis's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.73x) against Real Betis's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
67%
1.50
24%
4.22
10%
10.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.51
0.61
Granada CF xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
10.52
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
70.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.61 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Real Betis have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 6W 10D 3L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF's form line: 2W 5D 12L from 19 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Real Betis have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (5W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Real Betis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Granada CF have gone 0W 1D 8L from 9 away games — 0.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Granada CF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Betis are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.16 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Defensively: Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 6W 10D 3L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 2W 5D 12L in their last 19 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Granada CF away?
Real Betis's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 2.11 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.11 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Granada CF in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Betis have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Granada CF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Real Betis
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 3, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Real Betis 1-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Granada CF?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 44%, Granada CF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Real Betis and 44% for Granada CF.
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Granada CF in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Real Betis's recent matches and 44% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Real Betis's recent games and 44% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Granada CF tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Granada CF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Granada CF 1-0 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.90 xG and Granada CF 0.61 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Betis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 0.99 / defence 0.73 against Granada CF attack 0.73 / defence 1.36, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 67% | Draw 24% | Granada CF 10%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 32%, Granada CF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Granada CF's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.