Girona 4-3 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Atletico Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Girona welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 January 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Madrid's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Girona are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Girona, 2 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Atletico Madrid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Atletico Madrid trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 70% and Atletico Madrid 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 61% | Atletico Madrid 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.65 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.342 / defence 1.017 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.088 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.104. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Girona games / 56 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 45% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 26%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Atletico Madrid 3.85. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Girona 50% | Atletico Madrid 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Jan 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 45% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Girona 1.65 / Atletico Madrid 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.342 / def 1.017 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.088 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Girona (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Atletico Madrid xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Girona vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:30 on Wednesday 3 January 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Girona 4 - 3 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Girona vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Girona vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 45% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Girona and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
Record (2 meetings): Girona 0W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 2W.
What form are Girona and Atletico Madrid in?
Girona (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Girona's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.53
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Girona xG
Total xG
2.88
1.22
Atletico Madrid xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
5%
19.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Girona and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Girona and 1.22 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Girona have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 27W 13D 16L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 35W 10D 11L from 56 games, 2.05 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.68 PPG, Atletico Madrid on 2.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.93 PPG from 27 outings (16W 4D 7L).
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 13W 6D 8L from 27 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.89 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 27W 13D 16L in their last 56 games (1.68 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 35W 10D 11L in their last 56 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Girona's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.93 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Girona or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Atletico Madrid won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
0
Draws
7
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atletico Madrid 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 63%, Atletico Madrid 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Girona) and 41% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid in 41%; Atletico Madrid in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Girona's recent matches and 37% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Girona's recent games and 41% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Atletico Madrid 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Atletico Madrid 4-3 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.65 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.22 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.34 / defence 1.02 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.09 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 45% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 26%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 61%, Atletico Madrid 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.68 PPG, Atletico Madrid 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.