Girona 0-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Girona face Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Mallorca at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga (matchday 34). Kick-off is Friday 1 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Girona have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Girona have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Girona are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.20 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Girona have won 4, Mallorca 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2026, ended Girona 2–1 Mallorca — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Mallorca trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 56% versus Mallorca 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 54% | Mallorca 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.74 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.974 / defence 1.078 | Mallorca attack 0.829 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.136. Data: built from Girona's last 71 games and Mallorca's last 71.
Result probabilities: Girona 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 22%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.84 | Draw 4.23 | Mallorca 4.55. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Girona 50% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, matchday 34 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Girona 1.74 / Mallorca 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.974 / def 1.078 | Mallorca attack 0.829 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Girona (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Mallorca xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Mallorca FAQs
What time does Girona vs Mallorca kick off?
Girona vs Mallorca kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Mallorca?
Girona 0 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Girona vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Mallorca part of?
Girona vs Mallorca is a La Liga fixture (matchday 34) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 54% chance of winning, Mallorca a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Girona and Mallorca will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Girona vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Girona's attack rating (0.97) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 71 games and Mallorca's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.23
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Girona xG
Total xG
2.75
1.01
Mallorca xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
25.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Mallorca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Girona and 1.01 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona come into this having played 71 games, going 20W 19D 32L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.17 PPG from 71 outings (22W 17D 32L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.11 PPG, Mallorca on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Girona's home form reads 13W 7D 15L across their last 35 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 35 away games (7W 6D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.07 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
Girona (Home) vs Mallorca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Girona vs Mallorca Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 20W 19D 32L in their last 71 games (1.11 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 22W 17D 32L in their last 71 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Mallorca away?
Girona's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.31 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 1 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Girona's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Mallorca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Mallorca?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 4, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Girona and Mallorca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2026: Girona 0-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Mallorca?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 51%, Mallorca 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Girona) and 51% (Mallorca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 29% of games; Mallorca in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Mallorca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Mallorca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Girona's recent matches and 49% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Girona and Mallorca matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Girona's matches and 51% of Mallorca's.
Do Girona and Mallorca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Girona's recent matches and 63% of Mallorca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Girona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Girona 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.74 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Mallorca attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 22%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 54%, Mallorca 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.11 PPG, Mallorca 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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