Almeria 0-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Power Horse Stadium plays host to Almeria versus Girona in La Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almeria have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Power Horse Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Girona's overall La Liga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Girona are 2.40 PPG clear of Almeria in recent La Liga fixtures (2.60 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almeria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Girona in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almeria lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 2–5 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Almeria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almeria 67% and Girona 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 63% | Girona 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.17 xG and Girona 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.850 / defence 1.267 | Girona attack 1.501 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.125. Girona have an above-average attack strength of 1.501 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Almeria games / 57 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 19% | Draw 23% | Girona 58%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Girona 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Girona (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 6.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 60% | Girona 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 19% | Draw 23% | Girona 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Almeria 1.17 / Girona 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.850 / def 1.267 | Girona attack 1.501 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Girona (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Girona xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Girona kick off?
Almeria vs Girona kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Girona?
Almeria 0 - 0 Girona.
Where is Almeria vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Girona part of?
Almeria vs Girona is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 19% chance of winning, Girona a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Almeria and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Girona?
Record (3 meetings): Almeria 1W | Draws 0 | Girona 2W.
What form are Almeria and Girona in?
Almeria (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Girona (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almeria's attack rating (0.85) and Girona's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Girona's attack (1.50x) against Almeria's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
19%
5.36
23%
4.31
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Almeria xG
Total xG
3.31
2.14
Girona xG
5.36
19%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
12%
8.49
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
2%
45.48
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Almeria and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Almeria and 2.14 for Girona, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Girona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Almeria have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 11W 13D 33L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona's form line: 28W 13D 16L from 57 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Girona are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Almeria have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Girona have gone 10W 9D 9L from 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almeria are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.82 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Girona in 70%.
Last 57 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Girona in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 13D 33L in their last 57 games (0.81 PPG), while Girona have gone 28W 13D 16L in their last 57 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.32 PPG; Girona away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won 6-2 on 17 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
1
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Girona?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Girona have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Almeria 0-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Almeria, 75% for Girona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Almeria) and 57% (Girona). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Almeria's games and 75% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Almeria's matches and 57% of Girona's.
Do Almeria and Girona tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Girona in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almeria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Almeria and Girona drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.17 xG and Girona 2.14 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almeria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Girona landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Girona attack 1.50 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 19% | Draw 23% | Girona 58%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 63%, Girona 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Girona's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.