Villarreal 2-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de la Cerámica plays host to Villarreal versus Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Villarreal have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Villarreal's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio de la Cerámica this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almeria (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almeria away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Villarreal, 0.90 for Almeria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Villarreal register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Almeria in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Villarreal 2W, Almeria 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Almeria half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 52% versus Almeria 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 52% | Almeria 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.94 xG and Almeria 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.185 / defence 1.282 | Almeria attack 1.040 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.170. Data: 42 Villarreal games / 42 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 47% | Draw 22% | Almeria 31%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Almeria 3.23. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 80% | Almeria 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 47% | Draw 22% | Almeria 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Villarreal 1.94 / Almeria 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.185 / def 1.282 | Almeria attack 1.040 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Almeria xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Almeria kick off?
Villarreal vs Almeria kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Almeria?
Villarreal 2 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Villarreal vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Almeria part of?
Villarreal vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 47% chance of winning, Almeria a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Villarreal and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Almeria?
Record (2 meetings): Villarreal 2W | Draws 0 | Almeria 0W.
What form are Villarreal and Almeria in?
Villarreal (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Almeria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (1.04x) against Villarreal's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
47%
2.13
22%
4.57
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.50
1.56
Almeria xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
4%
22.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.56 for Almeria, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal's recent record stands at 20W 7D 15L from 42 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almeria, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 22L across 42 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almeria's away record stands at 1W 6D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.26 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 67%.
Last 42 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Early Season
Almeria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Almeria in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 20W 7D 15L in their last 42 games (1.60 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 9D 22L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Almeria away?
Villarreal's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.80 PPG; Almeria away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Almeria in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Villarreal go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almeria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Villarreal
0
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 4, Almeria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Almeria 1-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Almeria?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Villarreal, 70% for Almeria — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Villarreal) and 60% (Almeria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almeria in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Villarreal's games and 70% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Villarreal's matches and 60% of Almeria's.
Do Villarreal and Almeria tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Almeria in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Almeria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Almeria 2-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.94 xG and Almeria 1.56 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.19 / defence 1.28 against Almeria attack 1.04 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 47% | Draw 22% | Almeria 31%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 52%, Almeria 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Almeria's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.