Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Mallorca encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Celta Vigo and Mallorca meet at Estadio Abanca Balaídos in La Liga (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

Celta Vigo's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Celta Vigo's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Mallorca have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Mallorca have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form favours the hosts. Celta Vigo's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Celta Vigo, 3 for Mallorca and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Celta Vigo 1–1 Mallorca — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 66% and Mallorca 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 53% | Mallorca 50%). Note also that Mallorca surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Celta Vigo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 48% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.86 xG and Mallorca 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.094 / defence 1.038 | Mallorca attack 0.789 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.136. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Celta Vigo's last 62 games and Mallorca's last 62.

Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 17%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.71 | Draw 4.11 | Mallorca 5.75. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Celta Vigo 70% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 50% (last 10 away games).

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