Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Celta Vigo (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Celta Vigo face Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio Abanca Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Celta Vigo (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Celta Vigo have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Celta Vigo. A 0.60 PPG lead over Alaves (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Celta Vigo have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Alaves managing 1 and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Celta Vigo 1–0 Alaves — a Celta Vigo win.
The head-to-head data gives Celta Vigo an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 67% versus Alaves 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 53% | Alaves 39%). Note also that Alaves surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Celta Vigo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.87 xG and Alaves 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.074 / defence 1.019 | Alaves attack 0.824 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.124. Data: built from Celta Vigo's last 66 games and Alaves's last 66.
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 59% | Draw 23% | Alaves 18%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.70 | Draw 4.40 | Alaves 5.43. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Celta Vigo's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 59% | Draw 23% | Alaves 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Celta Vigo 1.87 / Alaves 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.074 / def 1.019 | Alaves attack 0.824 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Alaves xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Celta Vigo vs Alaves kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Celta Vigo 3 - 4 Alaves.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Alaves part of?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 59% chance of winning, Alaves a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Celta Vigo and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Celta Vigo vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.07x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.82x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Celta Vigo's last 66 games and Alaves's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.40
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.81
0.94
Alaves xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
35.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.94 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo come into this having played 66 games, going 26W 18D 22L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.06 PPG from 66 outings (17W 19D 30L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.06 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Celta Vigo's home form reads 15W 8D 10L across their last 33 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 33 away games (6W 8D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.97 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Celta Vigo vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Celta Vigo and Alaves in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 26W 18D 22L in their last 66 games (1.45 PPG), while Alaves have gone 17W 19D 30L in their last 66 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Alaves away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.61 PPG; Alaves away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Celta Vigo and Alaves, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won Celta Vigo 4-0 Alaves on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Celta Vigo
2
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Celta Vigo vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Celta Vigo have won 5, Alaves have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 58% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 64%, Alaves 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Celta Vigo) and 48% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Celta Vigo and Alaves matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Celta Vigo's games and 54% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Celta Vigo and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 48% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 67% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Celta Vigo 3-4 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.87 xG and Alaves 0.94 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against Alaves attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 59% | Draw 23% | Alaves 18%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 53%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.45 PPG, Alaves 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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