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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Celta Vigo 3-4 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.87 xG and Alaves 0.94 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against Alaves attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 59% | Draw 23% | Alaves 18%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 53%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.45 PPG, Alaves 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights